I Want My Country Back

Back from who? The Question nobody wants to answer, in public.

Lee Anderson has Joined the Reform company (it isn’t a political party) after being ejected from the Conservative party. His speech after the announcement began and was peppered with the statement that he wanted ‘‘his country back.’’ Neither he nor Richard Tice, the company leader would be drawn on the questing of who from, in public, although on social media they make it clear to supporters that is or ‘‘foreigners.’’

Their supporters were ardent Brexit supporters, many of them in the over 65 age group in 2016, and today. Covid 19 and the war in Ukraine caused economic shocks to the UK, but it is now clear that leaving the EU has a massive negative effect on the UK economy; 4% of GDP, which is huge. Many Brexit voters regret their decision, but the pensioners are unmoved; they own their houses without mortggage and have tripple locked pensions. They are happy with Brexit, but angry that the Tories have not got rid of the foreigners, replacing Europeans with people from countries further afield. They are playing with fire.

The UK’s birthrate has been declining for decades. Life expectancy has grown rapidly, causing a huge increase in the number of people receiving the state pension, and a big hike in demand for the NHS. The UK economy has compensated for the falling birthrate by recruiting people from the EU, and now further afield The NHS and social services have done the same. Migrants make a huge contribution to government finances services. The OBR calculate it at 24% of Their earning. This is largely due to their age profile. The UK does not pay for their education, they are not old and make little demand on the NHS, and they usually go home, so don’t stay here to draw a pension. The average UK resident contribution is 0%. We cost was much as we contribute over our lifetime.

If the UK did get rid of huge numbers of migrants, the State Pension would have to be reduces by 12% to 16%. The Government knows this, and is paving the way to make pensioners contribute more. The proposed scrapping of National Insurance will see an increase in Income Tax to compensate. That could provide a cover for more taxation, but for pensioners it is a guaranteed hit. People on state pension do not pay National Insurance. If they have an additional income, the extra income this provides is paid in tax at higher than the NI rate. But if NI is scrapped and Income Tax is raised, they will be much worse off. It could tip some into a higher rate tax band.

The Tories are in a lot of trouble. Reform is an organisation with illogic, economically and legally illiterate policies, but they appeal to the Right of their supporters. The Tories lurched to the Right to fend off UKIP, and absorbed many of their members, but they have lost two voters for every one they gained. Their members choose the leader, and those members are Right wing vehemently anti-immigration, economically and legally illiterate.